Rahul Mehta Gandhinagar LsCandidate

Numerical comparison "Right to Recall MP" - procedure proposed by Varun Gandhiji and RRP
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Numerical examples to show that RTR-MP procedure proposed RRP is better than RTR MP procedure proposed by Shri Varun Gandhiji as private member bill.
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(A detailed comparison is at https://fb.com/mehtarahulc/posts/10154357792041922 . This post has some numerical examples. )
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Lets say a Loksabha Constituency has 20,00,000 voters ( in all examples below, constituency has 20,00,000 voters) .
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Summary of Varunji's procedure - (a) upon signature of 500,000 voters, ECI will conduct will a recall poll. And if and only if 15,00,000 voters demand recall, then only there will be a recall.
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Summary of RRP's procedure - (link given in first comment) (a) A voter can approve atmost 5 persons who have registered themselves to become MP (b) recall poll will happen if one candidates gets 5% of ALL i.e. 5% of 20,00,000 = 100,000 more than higher of two - approval count of existing MP and votes MP got (c) in recall poll, voters can vote for candidate he likes (d) recall will happen only if new canidate gets highest votes and 5% more votes than MP got in the last election
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Now lets take some numerical examples to show that RRP procedure is better
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( in all examples, I am using Constituency size as = 20,00,000 voters ).
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(1) Chances of wasteful recall poll are higher in Shri Varunji's procedure and almost zero in RRP procedure :
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(1.v.a)constituency size = 20,00,000 voters
(1.v.b)votes MP Mr. A had got = 550,000
(1.v.c)number of voters who dislike MP Mr. A = possibly 14,50,000
(1.v.d)so over 5 lakhs voters may sign recall petition
(1.v.e)in recall poll, the 550,000 supporters may NOT vote YES for recall
(1.v.f)so YES votes for recall can be below 15,00,000.
(1.v.g)so there will be no recall.
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IOW, the recall poll was wasteful
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Now in RRP proposal,
(1.r.a)constituency size = 20,00,000 voters
(1.r.b)votes MP got = 550,000
(1.r.c) as long as as a candidate doenst get approval of 650,000 candidates, there will be no recall poll. And if the candidate has 650,000 approvals, then chances are high that he will get 100,000 more votes than existing MP in the recall poll.
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So chance os wasteful recall poll are minimal.
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(2) In Varunji'sprocedures, Recall may happen even when existing MP was still most popular, and so same MP may get get re-elected i.e. wasteful recall poll, and wasteful recall can happen. Possiblity of such event is almost zero in RRP's RTR-MP procedure
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(2.v.1) constituency size = 20,00,000 voters
(2.v.2) votes MP had got = 350,000
(2.v.3) but say NO other candidate has support of over 350,000 voters
(2.v.4) number of voters who dislike MP = possibly 1650,000
(2.v.5) so over 5 lakhs voters may sign recall petition
(2.v.6) in recall poll, over 15,00,000 voters may vote for recall
(2.v.7) in next, election say same person gets 350,000 votes
(2.v.8) and no candidates gets over 350,000 votes
(2.v.9) so same recalled MP becomes MP
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Now there is NOTHING wrong if same recalled MP becomes MP. But what was wasteful was - recall poll, and election followed by recall poll. Since no person was more popular than that MP, recall poll and election following recall poll should have been avoided.
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In generfal, a procedure has flaw if voters have to vote again if even existing MP was still most popular. Now this flaw will NOT come in RRP procedure
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Lets take same numbers.
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(2.r.1) constituency size = 20,00,000 voters
(2.r.2)votes MP had got = 350,000
(2.r.3)but say NO other candidate has support of over 350,000 voters
(2.r.4)so approval count of other candidates < 350,000
(2.r.5)so there will be no recall poll
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Essentially, the procedure proposed by us uses positive recall. In positive recall, recall or recall poll happens only when
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(3) In Varunji's procedure, recall doesnt happen, even when an alternate candidate is has become more popular after election
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(3.v.1) constituency size = 20,00,000 voters
(3.v.2) votes MP had got , say = 650,000
(3.v.3) say a few months have passed
(3.v.4) say no. of supporters of an alternate candidate now = 800,000
(3.v.5) no. of signatures on recall petition = possibly over 500,000
(3.v.6) so recall poll will happen
(3.v.7) but no. of voters who saying YES for recall = less than 13,50,000
(3.v.8) so recall wont happen
(3.v.9) no. of voters who will say YES for recall = less than 13,50,000
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so recall wont happen, evem though existing MP is now supported by 650,000 while an letrnative candidate is supported by 800,000 voters.
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Now consider RRP proposal
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(3.r.1) constituency size = 20,00,000 voters
(3.r.2) votes MP had got , say = 650,000
(3.r.3) say a few months have passed
(3.r.4) now no. of supporters of an alternate candidate = 800,000
(3.r.5) so recall poll will happen
(3.r.7) and in recall poll, if the alternative gets more votes than existing MP and gets more votes than 750,000 , then he will become new MP
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So when an alternative candidate does become more popular, recall/replacement does happen.
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IOW, in RRP procedure chances of spurious recall poll is lesser compared to Varuji's procedure. And when recall/replacement is feasible, chances of recall in RRP is higher.