Rahul Mehta Gandhinagar LsCandidate

How may GoI gain from , how poor may gain, and how may nation may gain or loose from demonetiztion of old notes?
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Total cash in Rs 500 / Rs 1000 notes = Rs 14,00,000 crore
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Of this , some Rs 500,000 crore is 100% white. (like about Rs 60000 in my home)
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Now rest black money = Rs 900,000 crore
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If none of them deposit this cash, then GoI will gain Rs 900,000 crore.
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And if all that deposited in bank account of actual owners , then GoI can earn as much as 35% = Rs 300,000 crore
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This is the MAXIMUM amount govt will gain.
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But if all of them manage to buy gold via poor, then GoI will gain ONLY some 2% i.e. say Rs 20,000 crore and poor will gain some 10% i.e Rs 90,000 crore and gold sellers and touts will gain another 5% and rich will loose some 15%.
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So money from rich who hadnt paid taxes came to poor !!! Each one can decide whether it is good or bad
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But long term loss to nation is huge --- gold import will shoot up. Because from now on, all black wealth hoarders will use almost all gold and not much cash.
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So even if GoI gains Rs 300,000 crore, the gold import and resulting forex loss over next 5 years will do overall more damage than good.
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And pls note - analysis is subjective.
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Will people now use gold or cash to hoard the income gained by crime or corruption or tax evasion (tax evasion by under invoicing or selling goods without bills).My claim is --- people will switch to gold from now on. And so I am saying that over next 5 years , gold import will rise. But different people can have different view.
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By jan-2017, we will have all the information we need.