Rahul Mehta Gandhinagar LsCandidate

Can CIA / China via satellite track Indian soldiers moving towards Pakistani terrorists camps? If no, then fine. But if YES, then what / who stopped CIA / China from alerting Pakistanis? And could Pakistanis had used sniffer dogs to guard launchpads so that if any new person comes within 500 meters, then dogs can alter them?
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paid-Indian-Express says that GoI would release video footages. So final questions will get decided them. Meanwhile, lets see some 2 specific issues --- satellite supervision and sniffer dogs.
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(1) Humint --- human agents who can leak information. Lets assume that didnt happen
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Say plan is that our 80 - 100 soldiers in 5 teams , each team, 15 to 20 soldiers, will cross LoC at specific points, And plan involves using ISRO scientists, and many personnels in a few agencies. At least 100 persons over and above soldiers would know parts of this operations.
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CIA has huge humint i.e. human intelligence i.e. human agents inside GoI who can leak information on when operation is going start and which camps will be attacked. Chinese humint is limited. But as Chinese FDI grows, Chinese humint in India will also grow. So did USA or China got prior information? If yes, what stopped them from alerting Pakistanis..
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BUT LETS ASSUME than CIA ./ China had zero humint. i.e. none of their agents could know and pass this information.
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(2) Supervision by enemy satellites
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Now lets see techint = technical intelligence. There are 100s of tools used in techints. Lets consider satellite supervision.
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A view of satellite is so that a standing human will appear as a small circle (top of head) and crawling human will appear as small stick only. So software can miss human in picture in satellite. And objects like trees etc can create some obstructions. And at this point, I dont know how clear will be satellite images taken during night time and in bad weather.
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Now if a satellite takes a picture of a piece of land which is say 20 meters * 20 meters, and puts on a newspaper size (A2 size) computer monitor. Say that picture has a human standing or crawling. then a trained human operator who is seeing this can identify that there is human somewhere. But if same satellite takes a 100 m * 100 m picture, and put is same monitor, then the human being in the picture will be so small that human operator cant identify.
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One can use software to identify humans from a large number of images. But since a human being in satellite picture is a small circle or a small stick, such softwares are still not very accurate. Software can do some magic. eg say satellite takes pix of same 10 m * 10 m area at 20 seconds and compares these pictures. And if a human being is crawling in those pix, then satellite software can identufy that " a stick is moving in that area". But it can be some animal or can be some human, So human operator becomes must to get clear information. So both humans operators and softwares are used.
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So if area taken is too large, then human operator seeing satellite images will fail to see a human in picture. And if picture covers small area, then one will need to take so many pictures to cover that area, that human operator will not get time to analyse all of them.
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Say our soldiers walked / crawled 3 km . So in general, the whole area is big enough that human operators cant monitor all the time, After all China and CIA both have limited staff and limited number of satellites.
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But lets say CIA \ China knew one thing that our soldiers are going to attack 1 out 20 lauchpads near LoC. And they decide to put supervision on those 20 launchpads and 500 meters * 500 meters area around it. And each picture covers 10 m * 10 m area. To cover (500 m * 500 m) area into (10 m * 10 m) pix, we would need 2500 pix. And to oversee 250 meters * 250 meters around launchpad, one would need 625 pictures. So task is still cumbersome. but not impossible,.
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And once a human operator looking at satellite images spots a walking or crawling human, now tracking him is a piece of cake. And also detecting location of almost all team members near by is also easy.
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So my point is --- say CIA or China or Pakistan had dedicated one satellite per 2-3 camps, with a guess that Indian soldiers may attack them anyday. and they had no humint to tell when exactly attack will happen and which 5-7 camps will be attacked. Then also, by supervisiong all camps they can could have seen our soldiers walking or crawling towards the camps.
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So may be CIA / China did not have any satellite suprevision, because they were not interested or they had no reason to think that such strcke would happen. Pakistan's satellite surveliience is next to zero. But if CIA or China had even slightest hint then they could have put satellite supervision of 500 m * 500 m area around the camps. And then they could have spotted our soldiers before they came close, and also spotted exact locations.
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But either CIA / China had no plan or schedule to for satellite supervision over those camps or some deal was cut to convince CIA / China not to alert Pakistanis.
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As an example, USA had elobarate plans to help Pakistanis during Kargil war, which would have enabled Pakistan ti continue war for months and months. But after India agreed to FDI in insurance and media, and also agreed to end further nuclear bomb testing, USA decided not to help Pakistan and call off the war. So its possible, that CIA didnt have faintest clue of operation-revenge or they had good information, but decided not to help Pakistan. A better answer will come after GoI released video as said by paid--IE.
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(3) sniffer gods
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Its possible that terrorists are so poor that launch pad guards dont have sniffer dogs. Because if sniffer dogs were there, then this plan had zero possibility of success.
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The sniffer dogs are made to smell each person who is supposed to be in base or near by. After that , if any new person comes even 500 meters away, the dog will smell him (unless wind direction is opposite) and start barking. These dogs cam smell body buried 10 meters deep in ground !!! So if 15 new persons have come close, the sniffer dog will go hysterical. Also gaurds generally walk with god and so even a soldier 600 meter to 800 meters close will get detected by the dog.
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Now paid-Inedian-express is saying that GoI will release video and that video may tell how sbiffer dogs were circumvented. The simplest answder can be -- they had no sniffer dogs.
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(4) Helicopter based facts
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Some paidmediamen had printed facts wrt helicopter based surgical strikes. Many issues came up eg why didnt Pakistanis couldnt use surface to air missines. But now Minister says that no helicopters were used. So those questions arent applicable now.
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So lets wait till vidoes come, as Indian Express sayd, they will come soon. Meanwhile, pls google on ability of satellites to detect humans on ground and pls also google of ability of sniffer dongs.