Rahul Mehta Gandhinagar LsCandidate

By claiming that repatriation-debt crisis will never happen , the paid-economists who support FDI are only fooling citizens !! Well, if repatriation crisis is never going to happen, then why do these economists oppose "repatriation via export only" criteria?
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Debt crisis is when the borrower's income is below the interest, forget principal repayments. And repatriation crisis is when (export - import + NRI transfers) are below even profit repatriation, forget capital repatriation. . To explain, I will give a summary of FII, FDI, trade, forex debt etc.
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(1) India's forex debt is $425 billion of which $90 billion is to be paid in next 12 months. In addition,
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(2) India has FDI + FII till date is about $360 billion. The capital has appreciated and so it may be worth $400 billion or more. But selling all assets in short time can cause fall in property value, as well as fall in rupee, and so that can bring down the net dollar value to as low as $200 billion. So capital's potential dollar burden is $200 billion to $400 billion
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(3) Plus Indian PSU banks have insured forex debt of Indian private companies, which may be $50 billion.
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(4) And trade deficit = imports - exports = around $130 billion per year !!
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(5) Forex reserves are $300 billion
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Now say no new loans are taken and no new FDI comes, Then within one year, we will have only $300 - $130 - $ 90 = $80 billion left. And that will become zero in next 4 months of debt repayments and trade deficit !! and there wont be a dollar left to pay for imports, interest, principal, repatriation of profits and repatriation of capital !!!
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IOW, we already have debt-cum-repatriation crisis at hand.
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But all paid-economists are all pro-FDI. They also support 100% FDi in railways and 100% FDI in newspapers, where export earnings are near zero !! They claim that repatriation-crisis will never ever happen. They claim that Govt will always have sufficient dollars to repay dollars for profits , interests, principal and capital repatriations. Well, they why do they oppose "repatriation by exports only" condition?
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The "repatriation by exports only" was the condition imposed by China in earlier years. The Chinese allowed FDI, but a company can take out dollars only equal to lesser of the two --- profits and exports it generated ! IOW, Govt = nation will never fall in repatriation trap due to that company !!
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Now if repatriation + debt t trap is never going to happen, then than can happen only if exports are always going to be high. In such case, the incoming foreign companies should have no problem in taking "repatriation via exports" only condition. If a country is never going to face repatriation crisis, then it is same as saying that But paid-economists always oppose this condition.
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IOW, consider following conversation :between a flat buyer and a builder
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Buyer - How much does this flat cost?
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Builder - Rs 50 lakhs, . The loan is 1% interest per month, compunded annual, and so EMI is Rs 72000 per month
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Buyer - is the building earthquake proof upto scale of 6?
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Builder --- this region never ever faces any earthquake . no earthquake is going to come,.
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Buyer - then pls out condition that if building collapses due to earthquake, then I wont have to pay the remainder of the amount
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Builder refuses !!!
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IOW, the builder showed bravado when saying "no earthquake will come." In reality, he was putting the burden on buyer and not himself. And when the buyer asked the builder to take that bravado on him, the builder refused. IThis is what I call as "BOLD ONE-SIDED PREDICTION",. where a person such as economists boldly makes a prediction and ask others to take the risk.
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All in all, exports of India are NOT improving. We have $130 billion per year deficit and except small ups and down, it has been rising and rising every year. This can be seen by taking 5 year average. The five year average trade deficit has been only rising,
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So all this bravado that "repatriation crisis wont happen" is like "flood will never come" and "earthquake will never come". And repatriation crisis is worse than earthquake and floods, because earthquake and floods dont conspire. Whereas MNC-owners have and do conspire to create repayment/repatriation crisis. The reason is to threaten Govt with instability and obtain monopolies like railways , mineral mines etc etc for a bargain price.
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So "repatriation crisis will never happen" is a fake bravado. shown by paid economists. They are fooling us. And solution is to impose "repatriation by exports only" condition on coming investors.
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