Rahul Mehta Gandhinagar LsCandidate
My conclusion after comparing may-2014 elections and recent sep-2014 byelections : in may-2014 , there was huge nagative vote against Congress, and so NaMo got tons of votes i.e. more than half the votes NaMo got were simply negative votes. The paidmedia showed that all negative votes as positive support. And these negative votes have still not become positive votes, despite so much paidmedia coverage.
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MANINAGAR, AHMEDABAD, GUJARAT
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Consider Maninagar Assembly Constituency , Ahmedabad, Gujarat. NaMo has been MLA from Maninagar since 2002. He has won three elections --- 2002, 2007, 2012 each with a huge landslide. In may-2014 Loksabha, Paresh Raval got huge surplus from Maninagar. This time also, in sep-2014 election BJP won.
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But % polling in may-2014 was about 70% plus. And this time it was mere 36% !! In general, polling in sep is higher than may because may is hotter. This is trend across India , that polling in hotter month is lower, in general . But polling was half. IOW, large number of voters simply sat home. Their feeling was "I like party A. So I wont vote for B. But if A is losing, then let it lose, I dont want to help".
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In may-2014, voting for BJP was must to stop Congress. So large number of anti-congress voters came out. But in sep-2014, their vote was neither going to change PM nor CM. So now only positive voters will show up. And voting % in Maninagar became half. This shows that positive voters of Congress as well as BJP are not even half of the total voters who vote for them. The paidmedia works round the clock to show that there is huge positive support for NaMo, by creating projection that all votes are positive votes, and by showing ethusiams of positive voters. But low polling in sep-2014 gives a less subjective proof.
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AAP did NOT even field a candidate, despite the fact that they now have 100s of volunteers. This is because the national apex leadership doesnt want regional leaders to rise. Their volunteers are wasting time.
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NINE CONSTITUENCIES IN GUJARAT - % voting fell significantly
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So out of 9 assembly seats which saw re-election in sep-2014, all 9 were previously held by BJP. And some 3 went to Congress and 6 went to BJP. And the % difference in votes has also reduced. And all constituencies except perhaps Matar, voting % fell compared to dec-2012 Gujarat assembly elections and also compared to may-2014 loksabha. So this also shows that both BJP and Congress have low positive voters..
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AAP did NOT even field a candidate in any of the nine constituencies, despite the fact that they now have 100s of volunteers in each. This is because the national apex leadership doesnt want regional leaders to rise. Their volunteers are wasting time.
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Rest of the India .
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I have seen all details. But % polling has reduced in UP, Bihar etc. Total votes obtained by all parties went down.
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The voting results in general election, when "who will be CM" is issue, will be much higher. And so BJP will be able to get more votes, as all those who want to block Akhilesh or Mayawati from becoming CM will now rush in to vote.
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So all in all, the shard decline in TOTAL polling % shows that no party has too many positive votes, and all parties are thriving on negative votes. AAP-apex doesnt want religion leaders to grow, and so doesnt even let them contest elections at their own money and time !!
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As such, election outcomes no longer have much impact on future of people and nation. The future will depend on what law-drafts activists work to get passed. Elections as such will come and go.
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